NOAA's National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are predicting above-normal hurricane activity for the Atlantic basin this year. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, spanning from June 1 to November 30, has an 85% chance of being above-normal, a 10% chance of being near-normal, and only a 5% chance of being below-normal.
NOAA anticipates a range of 17 to 25 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher). Out of these, 8 to 13 are expected to become hurricanes (with winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (categories 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these projections.
This heightened hurricane activity is attributed to several factors: near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and decreased wind shear, all of which are conducive to tropical storm formation.
"As we approach another active hurricane season, NOAA's commitment to providing life-saving information to every American remains steadfast," said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. "Innovations like AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone exemplify the proactive measures our agency is taking to fulfill our mission of saving lives and protecting property."
As one of the greatest El Ninos ever recorded approaches its end, NOAA scientists forecast a speedy transition to La Nina conditions, which are favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina reduces wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea have high oceanic heat content, which generates extra energy to drive storm formation.
Human-caused climate change is warming our oceans globally and in the Atlantic basin, melting ice on land, and raising sea levels, increasing the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise is an obvious human influence on the destructive potential of a particular cyclone.
Enhanced communications are in store for the 2024 season
This season, NOAA plans to strengthen forecast messaging, decision assistance, and storm recovery activities. This includes:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will expand its Spanish-language text products to include all Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update, and Key Messages for the Atlantic basin.
Beginning on or around August 15, the National Hurricane Center will begin issuing an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that depicts inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in place for the continental United States.
According to research, adding inland watches and warnings to the cone image will help communicate inland threats during tropical storm events while not confusing the present version.
This season, the National Hurricane Center will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings along with regular or intermediate public advisories. This implies that if updates to storm surge or wind watches and warnings are required, the NHC will be able to alert the public via an intermediate advisory rather than having to wait for the next complete advisory, which is published every six hours.
Satellite phone For Hurrincae and Power Backup Devices
Hurricanes are among the most destructive natural disasters, often causing extensive damage to infrastructure, including communication networks. In such scenarios, traditional cell towers and landlines might be rendered inoperative due to power outages or physical damage. Satellite phones become invaluable during these times, as they do not rely on terrestrial infrastructure. Instead, they connect directly to satellites orbiting the Earth, ensuring consistent communication capabilities even in the most remote and affected areas.
EcoFlow Power Backup Devices
- DELTA Series
- High Capacity: 882Wh to 1260Wh.
- Fast Charging: 0% to 80% in under an hour.
- Versatile Outputs: AC, DC, USB.
- RIVER Series
- Portable: Compact and lightweight.
- Expandable: Additional battery modules available.
Benefits
- Eco-Friendly: Solar recharge options.
- Smart Tech: Efficient energy management.
- Durable: Built for long-term use.
Integration Tips
- Pre-Hurricane: Charge and test devices, set up solar panels.
- During Hurricane: Conserve power, prioritize critical devices.
- Post-Hurricane: Recharge with solar, maintain communication.
New tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting this year
This season, NOAA researchers will implement two new forecast models: The Modular Ocean Model, or MOM6, will be incorporated to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to better capture the ocean's role in driving hurricane intensity. Another model, SDCON, predicts the likelihood of tropical cyclone rapid intensification.
NOAA's new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping, made possible by President Biden's Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will assist emergency and water managers in preparing for and responding to potential flooding, as well as local officials in better protecting people and infrastructure.
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, in collaboration with the NHC, will release an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season.
