NOAA's National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are predicting above-normal hurricane activity for the Atlantic basin this year. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, spanning from June 1 to November 30, has an 85% chance of being above-normal, a 10% chance of being near-normal, and only a 5% chance of being below-normal.
NOAA anticipates a range of 17 to 25 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher). Out of these, 8 to 13 are expected to become hurricanes (with winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (categories 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these projections.
This heightened hurricane activity is attributed to several factors: near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and decreased wind shear, all of which are conducive to tropical storm formation.
"As we approach another active hurricane